Our new Deepseek-based AI states "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl predictions from our brand-new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

Share this post

Nobody can forecast the future but at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to provide it its finest shot. With as much as date news and a little but lively 14 Billion specification model, our AI is boldly predicting the unpredictable. Join us as we try to respond to mankind's toughest concerns.

Super Bowl Sunday is almost upon us and, just as 2 years ago, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread presently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the statistics are well studied, there remain numerous pushing questions that are less easy to pin down. Our business, Lightning arrester Labs, has actually been mining questions from locations like polymarket.com and training a large language design to be much better at forecasting the future (and have seen some intriguing enhancements - term paper incoming). This week we turned its cold, computing eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can offer us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world subscribe to my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion specification model which is really on the smaller side. (Some price quotes suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION parameters and trained utilizing 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its understanding cutoff is from lots of months back so we have developed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each concern we offer the news and watch as the AI reasons its way through unidentified area to make its best forecast possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We postured the following concerns to our AI and gauged its reaction. While we have actually seen prediction improvements from our training, utilize these quotes for prop betting at your own danger.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% chance

And so it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, but a little too private for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta consider if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposal ...

First, I'll look at the bottom lines from the posts. Travis has remained in a relationship with Taylor considering that 2023. He's a big football star, and she's been supportive of his career, attending his games. They seem to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even welcomed her family and friends to the Super Bowl, revealing her commitment.

Some fans are thrilled, while others, especially Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly provided remarks Travis made about Donald Trump attending the Super Bowl. That has actually caused some Swifties to question how suitable Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple seems to be keeping their relationship personal and not dealing with the speculation straight.

I think the key points are the speculation and his evasive responses. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is a crucial event, the odds and his actions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low possibility, maybe around 5%, considering all aspects.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% opportunity

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" move, now its just a different front-tush being pushed. Will an AI comprehend what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even know what a "tush" is? Will it factor in that the Chiefs stopped (controversy aside) Josh Allen's similar efforts? Appears like our AI thinks they'll be utilizing Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this video game.

Alright, I'm trying to find out the probability that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the Super Bowl. First, I need to understand just what a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it appears like it's a method where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, utilizes his legs and lower body strength to push off defenders. It's compared to pressing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that requires strength and technique.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts utilizes his leg strength, having done a 600-pound squat, to perform the relocation. The article mentions that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this technique, which is quite high. ... I also require to think of the protective techniques of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are aware of the Eagles' "tush-push" method, they may adjust their defense appropriately, which might either increase or reduce the number of times the Eagles utilize it.

Considering that more than five appears like a significant number however possible given their self-confidence, I would approximate a likelihood around 60-70% opportunity. This represents their preparation, self-confidence in the strategy, and the probability that they'll utilize it a number of times, especially if it's efficient early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime program performance?

AI Final Prediction: 65% opportunity

While our AI might not resemble us when it pertains to awareness, a soul, or any physical symptom, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling back and forth, but in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to pull back from a fight.

From the articles, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his songs, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a declaration throughout a previous halftime show when Trump existed in 2018. That seems substantial since it shows he's done it before, so maybe he'll do it again. But wait, looking at more recent articles, it points out that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That could imply he's less likely to attend to Trump this time.

However, he's likewise included in a fight with Drake, which may give him factors to make some public declarations, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal concerns surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a disparagement fit from Drake, so possibly he's cautious about consisting of any questionable tunes in the efficiency. But given that he won the Grammys for that track, he might still wish to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent occasion, Lamar may feel obliged to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to prevent political statements throughout the halftime show, so there's a danger that such material may be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making bold relocations on big stages. He's the first solo rap act to heading the halftime program, which might provide him more creative liberty. Plus, his previous habits recommends he's not shy about revealing his opinions, even in public efficiencies.

But I likewise keep in mind reading that Lamar expressed fatigue about slamming Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That could suggest he's less inspired to raise Trump this time around, especially if he's concentrating on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, current shifts in focus, legal problems, and the occasion's context-the probability seems to be moderately high, perhaps around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% opportunity

Lets be truthful, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the fact that our AI has never ever tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its forecast? Looks like theres rather of an opportunity that if the chiefs taste victory, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the short articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl event. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, stating he didn't indicate to cause offense and that he actually found it funny himself. Reid appeared to take it in stride, which may suggest he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.

Taking a look at the articles, it points out that Andy Reid is a food lover and enjoys cheeseburgers. There's a post specifically about his love for food, which suggests that he's an individual who delights in consuming, particularly with his team. So, if there were strategies to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would partake in a cheeseburger, particularly if the scenario is on screen for an event.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% possibility

"Tails never ever fails?" You can't fool the devices !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have been predicting the coin toss and 53% are predicting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 incredibly bowls. Potentially financially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be deceived and believes anything can occur when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm trying to find out the possibility that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is expected to be 50/50, however there's some historic information that might influence this prediction.

First, I go through the short articles provided. They all discuss the historic stats of Super Bowl coin tosses. It looks like tails has actually shown up regularly than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, bybio.co tails has actually been the result 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which has to do with 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a slight edge, but it's not a substantial difference.

However, I remember that the result of a coin toss is normally considered random. The minor historic edge for tails could be due to chance. But when making predictions, sometimes people weigh historical data even if it's not statistically considerable. So, I need to think about whether this historical bias ought to influence the probability.

After thinking of it, I decide that while the historic data shows a small choice for tails, it's not statistically significant enough to move the likelihood far from 0.5. So, I'll choose 0.5 as the likelihood, acknowledging that the minor historical edge exists however does not override the truth that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% opportunity

We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na assist him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I promise we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training data) I would probably think the exact same. BUT, its official now because our AI says the opportunities are only 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still sort of high when it pertains to scams on a nationwide scale). Appears like the Chiefs will have to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm attempting to determine the possibility that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a pretty severe allegation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a great deal of posts that speak about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some doubtful calls in current games, particularly the AFC National championship. That does seem to stimulate some uncertainty. I can see why fans may get irritated when their group loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.

But then I read that the NFL and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "unbelievable" and "ridiculous." They state there's no evidence of organized bias. That's a strong declaration from individuals in charge. If they're denying it, it may imply there's no genuine basis or they would have resolved it in a different way if there was some reality to it.

Taking a look at the posts, numerous sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They likewise mentioned that analytical analysis does not reveal any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For circumstances, Mike Pereira from FOX said information shows the Chiefs have actually been punished more considering that 2022. That's intriguing because if they were getting unique treatment, you might expect fewer penalties, right?

...

So, putting all of it together, the possibility that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely really low. Maybe not zero since you can't eliminate every possibility, however exceptionally unlikely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth seeing the game still? I think I'll have to wait and see how the game turns out before we release this upon the stock market. Fingers crossed for an excellent video game! And hey, if it ends up our AI was incorrect about whatever, a minimum of it can gain from this.