MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another projection miss out on from a U.S. with caution ahead of January's work report to keep a lid on stocks into Friday's open - with buoyant long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.
Similar to Microsoft and Alphabet over the previous couple of weeks, Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as issue about cloud computing doused income and revenue forecasts and sent its stock down 4% over night.
The most recent underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" leading U.S. tech companies control an otherwise positive S&P 500, with questions about heavy invests on expert system ignited again by the development of China's low-cost DeepSeek design.
The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They added another 1%-plus earlier on Friday in spite of ongoing concerns about a mounting Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's retaliatory tariffs.
But the day's macro occasions will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. work report and long-term modifications of previous task production.
Job development most likely slowed to 170,000 in January from simply over quarter of million the prior month, partly restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather condition across much of the country.
Those distortions add a further complication to the readout, hb9lc.org which will include yearly benchmark modifications, new population weights and updates to the seasonal changes.
The week's sweep of other labor market reports, nevertheless, do point to some cooling of conditions - with job openings falling, layoffs rising and weekly unemployed claims ticking greater.
With the Federal Reserve currently attempting to parse the impact of President Donald Trump's brand-new financial policies, payroll distortions just cloud the image even further.
And as Fed officials insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on two more rate of interest cuts this year - resuming about midyear.
The Treasury market is more encouraged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's tasks report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.
Helping the long end today has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly reimbursing report that a "calling out" of debt auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as many had actually feared.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has likewise insisted the new federal government's focus would be on getting long-lasting rates down rather than pressuring the Fed to relieve too soon.
Reuters analysis reveals Trump has put holds on 10s of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved costs for projects across the U.S. that range from Iowa soybean farmers adopting greener practices to a Virginia railway growth.
Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration desires to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we put on ´ t desire is other nations to deteriorate their currencies, to control their trade."
But with the Fed on hold, main banks all over the world continued reducing rates of interest apace today - partly on issues a trade tariff war will deteriorate their economies.
With a sharp cut in its UK growth forecast, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with two of its policymakers choosing a larger half point reduction. Sterling compromised initially, however has steadied given that.
Mexico's main bank also cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday - stating it might cut by a comparable magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted a little late last year.
The European Central Bank, meantime, is expected to release its updated estimate of what it views as a "neutral" rate of interest later on Friday.
That's essential as it informs the ECB dispute about whether it requires to cut rates listed below what thinks about neutral to restore the flagging euro zone economy. It's currently seen around 2% - 75bps listed below the standing policy rate.
In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was constant on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a new low for the year, however, as Bank of Japan tightening speculation simmers.
In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy revenues season there unfolded.
Banks there have a been a standout winner today and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's biggest lending institution, was up 7.1% after it published record yearly revenues and introduce a brand-new share buyback program.
Key advancements that should offer more direction to U.S. markets in the future Friday: * U.S. January work report, University of Michigan February consumer survey, December customer credit; Canada Jan employment report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Reserve bank updates its estimate of "R *" neutral interest rate * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. business profits: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba check outs United States
(By Mike Dolan, modifying by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)