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Opened Feb 10, 2025 by Jacquelyn Connal@jacquelynconna
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve


A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another forecast miss out on from a U.S. megacap combines with care ahead of January's employment report to keep a cover on stocks into Friday's open - with buoyant long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.

Much like Microsoft and Alphabet over the past couple of weeks, Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as concern about cloud computing splashed earnings and revenue projections and sent its stock down 4% over night.

The latest underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" top U.S. tech firms check an otherwise positive S&P 500, with questions about heavy invests in expert system piqued again by the development of China's low-cost DeepSeek model.

The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They added another 1%-plus earlier on Friday regardless of continuous concerns about an installing Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's vindictive .

But the day's macro occasions will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. employment report and long-lasting modifications of previous task production.

Job development likely slowed to 170,000 in January from just over quarter of million the prior month, partly restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather condition across much of the nation.

Those distortions add a more problem to the readout, which will include yearly benchmark revisions, new population weights and updates to the seasonal modifications.

The week's sweep of other labor market reports, however, do indicate some cooling of conditions - with job openings falling, layoffs increasing and weekly out of work claims ticking greater.

With the Federal Reserve currently trying to parse the effect of President Donald Trump's new financial policies, payroll distortions simply cloud the photo even further.

And as Fed authorities insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on two more interest rate cuts this year - resuming about midyear.

The Treasury market is more urged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's jobs report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.

Helping the long end this week has actually been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly refunding report that a "terming out" of financial obligation auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as numerous had feared.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has likewise insisted the new federal government's focus would be on getting long-term rates down rather than pressuring the Fed to alleviate too soon.

Reuters analysis shows Trump has put hangs on tens of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved costs for jobs across the U.S. that vary from Iowa soybean farmers adopting greener practices to a Virginia railway growth.

Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration desires to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we wear ´ t want is other countries to damage their currencies, to control their trade."

But with the Fed on hold, main banks worldwide continued easing rates of interest apace today - partially on concerns a trade tariff war will deteriorate their economies.

With a sharp cut in its UK development projection, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with 2 of its policymakers voting for a bigger half point reduction. Sterling deteriorated initially, forum.altaycoins.com but has actually steadied given that.

Mexico's main bank also cut its rate of interest by 50 basis points on Thursday - stating it might cut by a comparable magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted slightly late in 2015.

The European Reserve bank, meantime, is expected to launch its updated price quote of what it sees as a "neutral" rate of interest in the future Friday.

That is essential as it informs the ECB debate about whether it requires to cut rates listed below what considers neutral to restore the flagging euro zone economy. It's currently seen around 2% - 75bps below the standing policy rate.

In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was constant on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a new low for the year, nevertheless, as Bank of Japan tightening up speculation simmers.

In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy incomes season there unfolded.

Banks there have actually a been a standout winner this week and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's greatest loan provider, was up 7.1% after it posted record annual profits and launch a brand-new share buyback programme.

Key developments that ought to offer more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday: * U.S. January work report, University of Michigan February customer study, December customer credit; Canada Jan employment report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Reserve bank updates its price quote of "R *" neutral rate of interest * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. business revenues: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visits United States

(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

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Reference: jacquelynconna/battlepanda#1