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Opened 2 months ago by Calvin Medeiros@calvinmedeiros
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Wall Street Shows Its 'bouncebackability': McGeever


By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 5 (Reuters) - "Bouncebackability."

This Britishism is generally connected with cliche-prone soccer managers trumpeting their teams' ability to react to defeat. It's not likely to discover its way throughout the pond into the Wall Street crowd's lexicon, however it completely sums up the U.S. stock market's to all the problems, shocks and whatever else that's been thrown at it recently.

And there have been a lot: U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff flip-flops, extended appraisals, severe concentration in Big Tech and the DeepSeek-led turmoil that just recently cast doubt on America's "exceptionalism" in the international AI arms race.

Any one of those problems still has the possible to snowball, causing an avalanche of selling that might press U.S. equities into a correction or even bear-market area.

But Wall Street has become incredibly durable given that the 2022 thrashing, specifically in the last 6 months.

Just take a look at the artificial intelligence-fueled turmoil on Jan. 27, spurred by Chinese start-up DeepSeek's discovery that it had established a large language model that might attain similar or much better outcomes than U.S.-developed LLMs at a fraction of the cost. By numerous steps, the marketplace move was seismic.

Nvidia shares fell 17%, slicing nearly $600 billion off the firm's market cap, the most significant one-day loss for any business ever. The worth of the larger U.S. stock exchange fell by around $1 trillion.

Drilling deeper, experts at JPMorgan discovered that the rout in "long momentum" - essentially purchasing stocks that have been carrying out well recently, such as tech and AI shares - was a near "7 sigma" relocation, or seven times the basic discrepancy. It was the third-largest fall in 40 years for this trading strategy.

But this impressive move didn't crash the marketplace. Rotation into other sectors sped up, and around 70% of S&P 500-listed stocks ended the day greater, implying the wider index fell only 1.45%. And purchasers of tech stocks soon returned.

U.S. equity funds drew in almost $24 billion of inflows last week, innovation fund inflows hit a 16-week high, and momentum funds drew in favorable flows for a fifth-consecutive week, according to EPFR, the fund flows tracking company.

"Investors saw the DeepSeek-triggered selloff as an opportunity rather than an off-ramp," EPFR director of research Cameron Brandt wrote on Monday. "Fund streams ... suggest that much of those investors kept faith with their previous presumptions about AI."

PANIC MODE?

Remember "yenmageddon," the yen bring trade volatility of last August? The yen's unexpected bounce from a 33-year low against the dollar triggered fears that investors would be required to offer possessions in other markets and users.atw.hu countries to cover losses in their substantial yen-funded bring trades.

The yen's rally was extreme, on par with previous financial crises, and the Nikkei's 12% fall on Aug. 5 was the most significant one-day drop since October 1987 and the second-largest on record.

The panic, genbecle.com if it can be called that, spread. The S&P 500 lost 8% in two days. But it vanished quickly. The S&P 500 recovered its losses within two weeks, and the Nikkei did similarly within a month.

So Wall Street has passed two huge tests in the last six months, a period that included the U.S. presidential election and Trump's go back to the White House.

What explains the durability? There's nobody obvious response. Investors are broadly bullish about Trump's economic agenda, the Fed still appears to be in reducing mode (in the meantime), the AI frenzy and U.S. exceptionalism stories are still in play, and liquidity is abundant.

Perhaps one key driver is a well-worn one: the Fed put. Investors - a number of whom have spent an excellent portion of their working lives in the age of extremely loose monetary policy - may still feel that, if it actually comes down to it, the Fed will have their backs.

There will be more pullbacks, and risks of a more prolonged decline do appear to be growing. But for now, the rebounds keep coming. That's bouncebackability.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Rod Nickel)

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Reference: calvinmedeiros/piercing-tattoo-lounge#1